Thursday, December 6, 2007

The falling American dollar

I read this article about the benefits of a falling dollar. Apart from making the exports more competitive, which accounts for about $ 1 trillion (approx 7-8%) of the economy, it does not add any other major reasons why Americans should not be concerned.
A couple of good points though:
1. Most goods imported from Europe are luxury, so they hit only the higher economic segment. The cheaper goods come from Asia. Will the falling dollar not affect these imports? Are most currencies in Asia linked to the Dollar? And would continued fall of the dollar not drive these investments out of Asia?
2. Prices in the US remain the same....again subject to the point above, but point taken, though this may not remain so.
3. 1985-1990 dollar fell but the economy did well....why? And why should it repeat?
4. China would not cash in on its dollars....completely agree, it would lead to much political instability and hamper Chinese growth, something the Chinese government is counting on for its sustained presence in China.

But the most important point is the loss in credibility of the dollar. The point is that other economies are rising, and investors will be more reluctant to put their money on the American economy instead of other more growing economies.

1) Does the fact that the other economies in the world are doing better and contributing more (Africa, India, China as an example) automatically imply that the strength of the American economy is becoming less important? Does this mean the dollar will continue to remain low?
2) McKinsey came out with a report saying that USA would remain the leading economy for the next 2 decades. Does this mean that other economies (since most are based on some form or other other on the American economy) continue to play second fiddle?
3) How is the money flow for business networks (upstream-downstream) for those completwely excluding the American economy growing? If this reaches a critical momentum, it may marginalize the American economy faster than one expects. That is, if the number of trade cycles (manufacturing, processing etc) between say Europe (value addition), China(manufacturing) and Africa (raw materials) increases, this may undermine the value and strength of the American economy. Is enough attention being paid to these sectors? All it needs is a critical mass.

All said, I hope things work out!! After all, I just got a job in the American economy!!!

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Good for people to know.